Truck And Transport Driver Shortages
Although the economy has been on a very weak and slow recovery from this ongoing recession. It seems the transportation industry has already experienced a decent recovery, according to most statistics, data and reporting sources.
The recession, new rules, taxes, fuel costs, lower rates and the cost of maintenance on trucks is very financially draining. This has caused many trucking companies and owner operators to not survive and resulted in them going out of business.
Some of the forecasting data shows freight growth in 2011 will average about 4 percent, with some quarters hitting 7 percent. As the freight bounces back, there are still forces that are working in the opposite direction. Trucking managers are being very conservative in adding capacity and federal government regulation will hold back capacity in the future.
Information reported shows that what was once a record surplus of 170,000 trucks ready to haul freight in 2009 has moved to a period of significant shortage of around 100,000 units that will increase to 250,000 units in 2011 and 400,000 in 2012, although based on a predication. That would result in this shortage being about twice or more what it was in the recession in 2004.
Other problems facing the industry to meet future freight demands will be finding drivers. The transport industry needs about five million contacts per quarter to hire the 150,000 drivers required to fill openings. That recruiting and training bureaucracy has shrunk due to the recession and will take time to rebuild.
Also Government regulation will also impact capacity. Impending changes in hours of service regulations and the introduction of Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2011 are expected to weed out drivers. The new laws and requirements for proof of citizenship or residency to obtain a CDL and hazmat requirements will further shorten capacity.
It seems the shortage will be much worse than what was experienced in 2004 and could reach 400,000 positions by 2012.
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